Wolfe Research analysts John Roque and Rob Ginsburg say gold enthusiasts should get ready for a big pop in prices, calling for as much as a 15% rise from current prices over the next few months.
The price of gold is currently about $1,478 per ounce, down from as high as $1,546 an ounce in September after an economy that appeared on the brink of recession began to right itself (thanks to the Federal Reserve’s cutting of interest rates and “not-QE”).
Since November, gold prices have largely been flat, but, according to the analysts, prices should begin to march north again over the next few weeks and months.
“Gold got very overbought into late August/early September, and since then it corrected its overbought reading,” the pair wrote in a recent report, according to Forbes, which notes the analysts read charts to forecast where prices may move next.
In the case of gold over the next few months, Roque and Ginsburg believe the “turn” upward is on and prices should surge up to 15% in the next 2 1/2 months.
According to them, the sideways movements over the past month or so indicate a base, which is an important setup for a big-time rally. This base, in addition to positive momentum indicators, show the price has already started a trend higher when compared to previous rallies.
“Prior turns, and there have been 7 of them [since 2015], show gold rallying, on average, 15% over nearly 75 days with a median gain of 14% over 83 days,” the Wolfe report notes.
They said with history as a guide, gold prices could rally 14% to $1,670 by February, coinciding more or less with Ash Wednesday.
Of course, as Forbes notes, this forecast is based on averages and there are always outliers. But Roque and Ginsburg believe gold will soon be setting records.
“We continue to believe that gold will make a new all-time high in this cycle,” the report states.
The last all-time record high for gold of $1,900 was set in 2011 while the economy was recovering from the Great Recession.