Welcome to your Friday earnings edition of What My System Says Today.
It has been an interesting start to the Q4 2025 earnings season thus far.
Things kicked off with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) missing earnings (as expected), which had a somewhat adverse impact on the market.
However, it was short-lived as chip companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and other financial institutions delivered beats on analysts’ expectations (more on that in a second).
While only a few tech companies have issued earnings so far, I want to zero in on the sector and guidance issued from S&P 500 tech companies before I get into “bullish” and “bearish” earnings for next week.
Check out this chart:
According to data firm FactSet, a near-record number of tech companies in the S&P 500 have issued positive fourth-quarter guidance.
This means they expect their earnings per share to be higher than initially anticipated.
In fact, 32 is the second-highest number of companies in the benchmark to issue higher guidance. The record, 36, was in the third quarter of the year.
Tech companies are feeling very bullish about their earnings prospects heading into reporting season… and for good reason.
Tech has carried the water for the recent gains in the S&P 500, so it stands to reason that its earnings will follow suit.
Now, let’s revisit an earnings call I made last week…
BlackRock Blows The Doors Off Estimates
Last week, BlackRock Inc. (BLK) led the list of “bullish” potential earnings.
I went so far as to suggest that the company will not only meet EPS estimates but also beat them, helping move the stock out of “bearish” territory in Adam’s Green Zone Power Ratings system:
BlackRock is a multinational investment company and is the world’s largest asset manager with $12.5 trillion in assets under management as of 2025.
It stands to reason that trading volumes continued to reach highs in the latter part of 2025, indicating that an investment company like BlackRock should see growth in its earnings.
I see BlackRock beating analysts’ expectations here and helping its “Bearish” rating on Adam’s Green Zone Power Ratings system.
Well, BlackRock knocked its earnings out of the park.
The company reported a 23.5% increase in quarterly revenue to $7.01 billion. However, more notably, its EPS was $13.16.
That figure was significantly higher than the $12.30 analysts projected before earnings were released.
The earnings beat led to a 6% jump in the share price on Thursday.
It also marked the sixth consecutive quarter that BlackRock beat earnings estimates.
BlackRock’s total assets under management jumped from $12.5 trillion to $14 trillion… also beating expectations.
Needless to say, it was a very good year for BlackRock.
Now, let’s switch focus and look at potentially “bullish” earnings calls for next week…
These stocks are expected to beat their previous quarter’s earnings per share (EPS), and thus, if those expectations are met or exceeded, they could potentially trade higher.
For this screen, stocks must meet four criteria:
- 10 or more analysts cover the stock.
- The average analyst recommendation is a “Buy.”
- It BEAT analysts’ EPS estimates for the previous quarter.
- The average analyst estimate for the current quarter’s EPS is greater than the previous one.
Here are ten companies that made this week’s list:
If there is a conglomerate that has struggled with beating earnings expectations, it’s Halliburton Co. (HAL).
The company has posted an earnings surprise only twice in the last five quarters.
However, Halliburton is expected to top its previous quarter’s EPS by $0.52.
Here’s something interesting about HAL:
This table shows HAL’s stock movement before and after its earnings calls over the last 12 quarters.
Two days before it reports earnings, the stock has risen 83% of the time, averaging a 1.7% gain.
Compare that to the day its earnings are reported. The stock moved up only 25% of the time and averaged a 1.2% loss.
The takeaway here is that HAL gets bid up before earnings, only to falter the day it reports.
This pattern will likely repeat itself this time around, despite the fact its EPS expectation is higher than the previous quarter.
Now, let’s look at potentially “bearish” earnings for next week…
“Bearish” Earnings to Watch
For our “bearish” earnings screen, we’re only looking for two things:
- 10 or more analysts must cover the stock.
- The average analyst estimate for the current quarter’s EPS is less than the previous quarter’s.
We want companies that are covered by a sufficiently large group of Wall Street analysts who collectively expect the company to report a quarter-over-quarter decline in earnings.
Here are seven companies that passed this screen:
One to focus on here is Netflix Inc. (NFLX).
In Q3 2025, the company missed EPS estimates by 15.8%, due to a $619 million tax dispute with Brazil.
That’s not the greatest set-up for Q4.
However, since then, Netflix has drawn viewers thanks to NFL games over the Christmas holiday and the release of the series finale of its popular Stranger Things franchise.
The biggest tell for Netflix will be whether viewers kept their subscriptions after those games and finale, or whether it was a one-off purchase.
If subscriber numbers hold or increase, Netflix will beat its earnings-per-share estimate of $0.55. If not, the stock will be in for a rocky start to the year.
I believe the company will report a hold in its subscriber numbers, if not a slight increase.
This will undoubtedly help move NFLX out of the “bearish” zone of Adam’s Green Zone Power Ratings system.
It should be another interesting week for earnings.
That’s all from me today.
I hope you all have a great weekend.
Until next week…
Safe trading,
Matt Clark, CMSA®
Chief Research Analyst, Money & Markets