Stocks sold off last week. Selling pressure in the latter half of the week was particularly high. But under the surface, there were signs of strength. Neither VIX nor volume gave sell signals.
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Read MoreLast week’s inflation data led to a sharp shift in expectations about Federal Reserve policy. The Fed’s next meeting is November 1. Traders take positions in the Fed funds futures market to hedge their exposure to policy changes. At Friday’s close, that market indicated there was a 93.8% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates where they are at the next meeting. That’s up from a 63% probability of no change a month ago.
Read MoreSeasonals turn bullish this week. The price pattern and sentiment have already turned bullish. Potential catalysts for an extended rally include a strong reaction to the inflation report due on Thursday or good earnings from financial companies the following day. It’s also possible that the market’s reaction to last week’s unemployment report could have ended the rally. The first few days of this week will be critical. But if we see follow through from Friday’s rally, it’s time to expect a significant up move in the market. I have more details in today’s 15-minute webinar.
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