Blackstone’s Byron Wien, one of Wall Street’s most influential investors, said 2020 could be a big year for gold traders.
“Watch gold in 2020,” Wien said. “It has a chance to be an interesting investment.”
Wien, the most widely read man on Wall Street and a modern cult figure in investing, according to U.S. News & World Report, described his outlook for gold in a recent interview with CNBC, with his comments coming as the precious metal ticked above $1,500 an ounce. At 11 a.m. EST today, gold was at $1,514.05.
The price of gold saw big gains in 2019, up more than 17% on the year, according to FactSet, a particularly strong move considering stocks also are setting record highs, which could set the table for an even bigger year in 2020.
The break above $1,500 alongside record highs, a rebound in Treasurys and a strong dollar “leads to an assumption that bulls will buy into the new year, so the market is trying to position ahead of time,” BMO Capital Markets head of metals derivatives Tai Wong said, according to Bloomberg. “It has the momentum that is a little mysterious and no one wants to stand in the way.”
Wolfe Research analysts John Roque and Rob Ginsburg said last week that gold could rise as much as 15% in the coming months, hitting $1,700 an ounce by March, and Goldman Sachs also is betting big on gold for the new year.
A big focus for 2020 will be, as per the usual, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. The Fed cut rates three times in 2019, the first three rates cuts in more than a decade. Heading into 2019, the central bank said it was likely to continue hiking rates. That was, at least until the stock market plunged from October through Christmas in 2018, forcing the Fed to rethink its next moves.
“Without a dovish Fed pivot, it’s unlikely gold will make explosive gains, but it does appear the market is trying to carve out a new higher trading range,” AxiTrader chief Asia market strategist Stephen Innes wrote in a note, adding that the current move upward “is a very favorable sign for gold bulls.”
Looking ahead, Wien said he doesn’t see any major risks to the record long bull market, such as rising inflation or someone like Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, coming to fruition.
Wien said to look for rates to remain at the current 1.5% to 1.75% range, and for Trump to win another term in 2020.
“Right now, I don’t see any severe thunderstorms inflicting the market in 2020,” he said.
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