10-Year Yields Haven’t Surged Like This Since Trump Was Elected
The 10-year Treasury note made its biggest moves Thursday since President Donald Trump won the election in November 2016.
At one point, the 10-year yield had moved up 15 basis points to 1.96% as investors jumped back into stocks following some positive news on the U.S.-China trade war front. The 10-year Treasury closed Tuesday at 1.92%.
It was the biggest move for the 10-year note since the day after Trump’s win in 2016 when the yield gained 20 basis points. Investors shifted from bonds to stocks on Nov. 9, 2016, hoping that deregulation and tax cuts under Trump would start a new rally. The S&P 500 reacted in kind that day, rocketing past 1% gains.
“This is a very substantial sell-off across the curve,” BMO Rate Strategist Benjamin Jeffrey said, according to CNBC.
“Given the lack of new economic information today, it’s more a result of the positive trade war headlines, and that coupled with a 30-year funding auction,” he continued. “The positive trade headline was the catalyst, and more technical factors are what’s driving the bulk of the move after that initial knee-jerk.”
It was a welcome sight after a rough summer led to a slide in the note and an inversion in the yield curve between the 10-year and 2-year Treasurys, which economists see as a reliable recession indicator. An inversion is a phenomenon that happens when the longer-term yield drops below that of the short-term.
Thursday’s move was only the latest in the 10-year’s resurgence. The note hit a three-year low of 1.44% at the beginning of September, so it has bounced back around 50 basis points since then. Most of that rise has happened since Oct. 1.
Positive news concerning the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies kicked off the jump Thursday. Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson Gao Feng said the two sides are closing in on a resolution to “Phase One” of negotiations, and both nations have agreed to cancel some tariffs that are already in place.
Investors diving back into stocks on the news sent indices up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 182 points higher at 27,674 points Thursday, which was a new record. The S&P 500 also hit a new high of 3,085 points, and the Nasdaq composite rose 23 points to 8,434.