If you’re worried about President Donald Trump being impeached, don’t. Your energy is better spent elsewhere.
Because with Republicans controlling the Senate, there’s little to no chance they would convict him, even if the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives votes to impeach. Three times in history a president has been impeached, and one has never been removed from office.
Of course, Richard Nixon didn’t give them a chance to convict and he instead chose to resign, perhaps seeing the writing on the wall.
What Wall Street Is Saying
Cowen Washington, one of the top brokerage firms on Wall Street, likened Tuesday’s news that the House will move forward with an impeachment inquiry for President Donald Trump to when Bill Clinton faced similar circumstances — the House impeaches, the Senate clears.
Policy strategist Chris Krueger told clients that a formal impeachment inquiry is most likely the next step, which House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed with an announcement Tuesday evening, setting the stage for what he called “Bill Clinton 2.0.”
According to Krueger, the base case is that “the House impeaches Trump, though the Senate does not convict. Pelosi may also create a new committee to study the Ukraine/Biden/Whistleblower issue.
“But whatever the path chosen, an impeachment vote now appears to be a question of when, not if — and more than likely by the end of this week.”
Pelosi formally announced an impeachment inquiry against Trump during a 5 p.m. press conference Tuesday. Trump is accused of enlisting the help of a foreign government, this time the Ukraine, for his own political gain.
“He is asking a foreign government to help him in his campaign, that is a betrayal of his oath of office,” Pelosi said Tuesday.
According to the New York Times, which has asked every member of the House, 169 representatives — more than two-thirds of the 235 House Democrats — support an impeachment inquiry, 73 do not support or are undecided, and 193 are awaiting response. At least 36 Democrats switched to favor an impeachment inquiry after the whistle-blower complaint came about Monday.
Trump allegedly pressured the president of Ukraine to open a corruption investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden, who just so happens to be the current front runner in the Democratic primary according to most major polls. The conversation is part of a whistle-blower complaint filed against Trump, a complaint that had been withheld from Congress.
However, Trump announced Tuesday on Twitter that he will release the full, unredacted conversation today.
….You will see it was a very friendly and totally appropriate call. No pressure and, unlike Joe Biden and his son, NO quid pro quo! This is nothing more than a continuation of the Greatest and most Destructive Witch Hunt of all time!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 24, 2019
Trump himself admitted to withholding about $400 million in aid to the Ukraine, but he said it wasn’t to pressure it into investigating Biden.
The scandal, Krueger said, “has upended Washington,” but what about Wall Street?
“The immediate focus for markets should be on what this means for trade and legislation for the remainder of the year,” Krueger said.
Krueger said an “all-encompassing” fight with House Democrats could take Trump’s focus away from the ongoing trade war with China, hurting the already fragile trade talks.
“Perhaps Trump can’t/won’t engage in the high stakes diplomacy to break the U.S.-China impasse and get/sell a skinny deal,” Krueger wrote to clients. “If Trump doesn’t go to APEC, the chances of any interim deal this year become very low. In this same vein, we were struck by the extremely hawkish language in Trump’s UN speech today — another data point for the argument that an interim deal is less likely, not more.”