The 2020 election season is nearly upon us and there’s still a monstrous field of Democratic primary hopefuls, and some top GOP donors are making predictions about how the markets will react were some of the top candidates to become president.
Yep, you guessed it, the billionaires and Wall Street in general are most afraid of a Warren presidency and according to Paul Tudor Jones, the market will crash 25% if she wins the White House. Tudor cited an internal survey at his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corporation.
Billionaire Leon Cooperman, who has been feuding with Warren of late, also said the market will dip 25% if she becomes president.
Point72 Asset Management founder Steven A. Cohen said the S&P 500 will fall between 10% and 15% if she wins.
However, regarding Warren, Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos said everyone needs to calm down because she won’t cause the markets to fall all that much.
“People forget she’s not that different from Obama. If you put the two of them side by side in 2007, they had very similar agendas — healthcare, regulation and financial, and energy and environment. From 2009 going forward, when Obama took office, we never looked back. The stock market just rallied,” he said in an interview with CNBC.
Cohen is much more down on a Sanders presidency, predicting a 20% drop if he were to win, while Cooperman again says it will tank 25%.
Duquesne Capital founder Stanley Druckenmiller is even more negative on Sanders, predicting a 30% to 40% drop earlier this year if Sanders wins.
If the former Vice President were to win the Oval Office, Jones sees about a 10% decline for the market.
Jones, who says “Mayor Pete” is his favorite candidate, would cause about a 10% decline in stocks.
And what about the incumbent president?
According to Jones, if Trump is to win a second term, expect a big bounce of about 15%. Other economists, such as Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, also say the record-long bull market will keep running even longer if he’s elected for another four years.
Trump also is predicting a massive stock market crash if he loses the election, but of course he would say that.
According to Forbes, Jones is worth about $5.1 billion, Cooperman about $3.2 billion, Cohen about $13.6 billion and Druckenmiller about $4.7 billion.