For the second day in a row, cannabis stocks were on fire after Wednesday’s news that the U.S. House of Representatives is likely to pass a historic bill removing the federal ban on marijuana.
Canada’s biggest growers, Canopy Growth, Cronos Group, Tilray and Aurora Cannabis, once again saw monster gains.
Canopy Growth (NYSE: CGC) ticked as high as 21% by lunch time on the East Coast, Aurora Cannabis (NYSE: ACB) rose as much as 22%, Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY) rose as much as 13%, and Cronos Group (NASDAQ: CRON) rose as much as 17% at one point.
The Alternative Harvest ETFMG (NYSE Arca: MJ), which tracks 36 cannabis stocks, also was up 10% by lunch time on the East Coast with 32 of its 36 components seeing gains.
The gains come even as the bill’s sponsors warned that the Republican-controlled Senate is unlikely to take it up anytime in the near future.
“The vote was mostly symbolic and is just the first step toward full legalization,” ETF banking and cannabis expert Jason Wilson told MarketWatch. “But legalization will come eventually and there’s still a lot of money on sidelines looking to get into the space.”
This week’s big rally comes after several months of cratering prices, mostly due to lower-than-expected demand in Canada along with poor quarterly earnings as the legal market in Canada has been faced with a shortage of retail outlets, allowing the black market to continue to flourish and undercut sales.
Consumers also want more than just flower and oil products that are currently available in Canada during the first phase of legalization. “Cannabis 2.0” will allow companies to sell edibles and other derivatives (Canopy Growth’s biggest backer is Constellation Brands, the maker of Corona beer — so think cannabis-infused beverages), but that won’t begin until February.
Wilson said that as the Cannabis 2.0 phase begins, some of the weaker players will be weeded out, leaving a bigger market share for more established companies.
“But companies that are well-capitalized, that have real assets and international operations will survive,” he said.
Canopy Growth, whose shares had fallen 65% over the past six months, received an upgrade this week from Bank of American Merrill Lynch, which said the company is set to meet expectations on Wall Street as the sector’s No. 1 player. “Concerned” about sales estimates for Canopy Growth, BofAML downgraded the stock to neutral in September, but upgraded it back to a Buy rating.
“Indeed, since our downgrade Sept 27, consensus revenues for the upcoming two quarters– FQ320 (CQ419) and FQ420 (CQ120) –have been cut 32/36%, while FY20/21 is -27/-32%,” analyst Christopher Carey said. “Following results last week, we believe this dynamic is now well understood; with the stock -38% vs SPX +5%, valuation 7/5x CY20/21e sales, and estimates appearing achievable, we think risk-reward is sufficiently better to recommend buying shares.”
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Full disclosure: The author of this piece owns small positions in both Canopy Growth and Aurora Cannabis.
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