MUFG Economist on the Market After Trade Deal: ‘Buy It. Buy It All’
“All over the world, markets are falling in love. Buy it. Buy it all.”
That’s some headline to a note to investors regarding stock market optimism from MUFG Union Bank chief financial economist Chris Rupkey as the U.S. and China reportedly agree to a “Phase One” trade deal, and after a decisive Conservative victory in yesterday’s election in the United Kingdom.
“Back up the truck and buy, buy buy,” Rupkey wrote as two monumental geopolitical risks over trade and Brexit, two things “thought to be strangling world economic growth” have seemingly been tamped down.
“There is some smoke and mirrors here, but it looks like this is the time for investors around the world to throw months of caution to the winds and take risk off the table, and they are, buying stocks and selling bonds with abandon, as the economic outlook brightens and central banks shelve their plans to cut interest rates further,” Rupkey wrote.
The U.S.-China trade deal has been the top subject for most investors, and now it looks like we have at least “Phase One” of a deal ironed out, according to U.S. President Donald Trump.
…..The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 13, 2019
So now that that’s settled — though now we’ll just be bombarded with talks of “Phase Two” for who knows how long — and there is a much clearer picture regarding Brexit as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party have a strong Parliament majority, 2020 could be yet another banner year for Wall Street and traders.
Rupkey said the outlook for 2020 now “looks better than it has in months,” and that the U.S. manufacturing recession should be closer to the end than the beginning.
“Take risk off the table as a concern to be hedged. There is no risk,” Rupkey wrote. “Bet on it.”
Editor’s note: Now that we have at least a partial trade deal, are you more inclined to buy stocks, or are you going to wait for a pullback as prices are quite high right now?