Even with the S&P 500 ticking up to new record highs, the latest CNBC Fed Survey shows there is rising concerns over a possible recession, growing division over monetary policy and worries over both President Donald Trump’s economic policies and the Democrats looking to unseat him.
According to CNBC’s survey, nearly 80% of the respondents say the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week, the third rate cut in four months which altogether are the first cuts in more than a decade.
However, 63% believe this is the final cut of the year with the next one coming in 2020, according to the fund managers, economists and strategists surveyed.
Nearly 40% say they think the Fed is done cutting rates at least though 2020.
“After the next cut, the fed funds rate would re-enter the zone where there is no evidence that further cuts help the economy,” Haverford Trust Co. director of fixed income John Donaldson wrote. “If ultra-low rates and negative rates are such a panacea, why aren’t Japan and Germany growing at 6% rather than teetering on recessions?”
Respondents see a 34% chance of recession in the next year, which is the highest number since 2011, as concerns over “protectionist trade policies” and a slowing global economy grow.
Those surveyed see U.S. GDP slowing to 1.75% this year, down from 2.9% in 2018, but then bumping back up to 2% over the next two years. They also said unemployment should inch upward above 4% by 2021.
Market expectations also were muted, with respondents predicting 6% gains for the S&P 500, to 3,228, by the end of 2021.
“The most critical issue facing the economy is the trade war and interest rate cuts will do little to change the course of growth as long as the threats of tariffs persist,” Naroff Economic Advisors President Joel Naroff wrote.
About 83% said there will be a limited U.S.-China trade agreement signed this year, while 76% say tariffs have resulted in higher prices for consumers and 60% believe tariffs have played a “significant role” in the global economic slowdown. About 60% reduced their growth forecasts for this year and next due to the tariffs.
Trump and the Democratic Contenders
Respondents noted there are growing concerns with Trump’s economic policies, but the Democrat potentials fared even worse.
On a scale of 1 to 10, Trump graded out at 5.5, barely above neutral.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden, the Democratic front-runner, graded out at 4.7, slightly negative for growth.
Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., scored a paltry 2 and 2.5, respectively. Almost 80% opposed Warren’s wealth tax and 45% say it will slash growth, mostly because they see it as an “inefficient” way to raise revenues and will largely end up in tax avoidance.
About 52% of respondents said Trump will win reelection, and he graded out at 48% economic approval, which is low compared to most of the rest of his first term.
“A house divided against itself cannot stand … and I can’t stand it either. Both parties are pathetic. Their irresponsibility puts growth at risk,” Fact and Opinion Economics chief economist Robert Brusca wrote.
