As things continue to head in the wrong direction in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, Nordea Asset Management Senior Macro Strategist Sebastien Galy says things could get a whole lot worse on Wall Street, predicting as much as another 10% decline in equities.
An hour before Wednesday’s closing bell, the markets were all in the red again. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both down 1.1%, and the Dow down 1.3% as investors continue to sell stocks and buy bonds due to concerns over how long the trade war could go on — and just how nasty things could get.
Some analysts are predicting that even if there is a resolution to the trade fight, a new tech cold war is brewing between the U.S. and China that could go on for years to come.
“Technology is where this battle is going to be fought out, even if we do get a trade deal on bilateral goods,” said Alastair Newton, the Alavan Business Advisory director.
But more importantly, in the short-term at least, is rampant volatility on the markets amid a global economic slowdown. Galy says investors should be more worried at this point, because things could get a whole lot worse.
“The market is deeply underestimating how bad it can get,” Galy said in an interview with MarketWatch, noting he sees a “60% chance things go quite awry on the trade side,” and a 5% to 10% pullback for stocks.
Galy said the U.S. could raise the tariffs on Chinese imports again, further exacerbating the situation.
“The worst-case scenario is that just ahead of the G-20, we realize that it’s a no-deal situation, and we get the U.S. imposing much wider tariffs on China, which will retaliate and devalue its currency,” he said. “That will force the Americans to again increase tariffs.”
Galy said companies that do a lot of business in China, such as Nike, Apple and pharmaceutical companies, will take the biggest hit. If China then resorts to devaluing its currency — which the U.S. said Wednesday it isn’t … yet — then companies that earn money in China will lose out when converting it back to U.S. dollars.
If things do go south, Galy said, the U.S. is in decent shape because its economy is now services-driven for the most part, whereas China relies more on its exports.
Investors also could expect the Fed rate cut Trump has been clamoring for.
Galy pointed to growth stocks as a place to buy once the market does bottom out.
“When you reach the bottom growth stocks are the ones to buy, they should be the ones that have suffered the most,” he told MarketWatch.