After the dreaded inverted yield curve hit the bond markets last week, President Donald Trump is pushing back against fears of an incoming recession and defending his trade war with China, which has been blamed for much of the market volatility.
“I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they’re loaded up with money.”
“I don’t think we’re having a recession,” Trump said. “We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and they’re loaded up with money.”
Our economy is the best in the world, by far. Lowest unemployment ever within almost all categories. Poised for big growth after trade deals are completed. Import prices down, China eating Tariffs. Helping targeted Farmers from big Tariff money coming in. Great future for USA!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 18, 2019
An inversion of the yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasurys has preceded every recession in the past 50 years, and the 10-year broke below the 2-year on Wednesday last week amid much turmoil for markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average cratered 800 points, or 3%, in a single day as investors headed for the hills.
Trump reportedly called the heads of some of the country’s biggest banks to get a feel on the health of U.S. consumers. He was told consumers are doing well, but would be doing much better if the trade war between the world’s two largest economies was settled, according to CNBC.
Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro made the media rounds on Sunday to defend the president’s tariffs. Appearing on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Navarro said tariffs on Chinese goods aren’t hurting U.S. consumers, despite reports from researchers at Harvard, the Federal Reserve of Boston, the University of Chicago and the International Monetary Fund that say they are costing consumers more.
From CNN, per Axios:
JAKE TAPPER: “You and the administration keep saying the entire burden of these tariffs and this trade war is being bore by China. A study from researchers at Harvard, the University of Chicago, the IMF and the Federal Reserve of Boston in May found that U.S. importers are shouldering about 95% of the price change from tariffs, and China is shouldering only 5%. Are you saying their research is wrong?”
NAVARRO: “You put on 10% tariffs on $200 billion. And China devalues its currency by 12%. Are consumers bearing anything on that? No. We have seen absolutely no evidence in the price data. It’s not showing up in the consumer price index.”
TAPPER: “If these tariffs aren’t hurting anyone in the United States …”
NAVARRO: “They’re not hurting anybody here.”
Navarro also denied the yield curve had inverted, and said it actually was flat, a sign that foreign capital is flowing into the U.S., pushing bond yields down.
“In this case, the flat curve is actually the result of a very strong Trump economy,” he said.
Larry Kudlow, another top economic adviser also said Sunday that unemployment remains low and the economy remains strong.
“I think we’re in pretty good shape,” Kudlow said.
While they both defended Trump’s tariffs, the latest round that were set to go into effect on Sept. 1 were postponed until December, which contradicts past statements that China is bearing the brunt of the tariffs.
“We are in a kind of technological war with China, and we cannot let them steal our family jewels, which is the heart of the American economic growth miracle,” Kudlow said.
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