After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance in June, a new trend called the “Trump Trade” quickly emerged in the bond market…
Observers noted that many bond investors were suddenly selling, not buying. Long-dated Treasury yields indicated a sharp change in inflation expectations as investors factored in the likelihood of a second term for former President Donald Trump.
This trend only strengthened when Trump emerged from an attempted assassination relatively unscathed. And it continued through last week’s Republican National Convention.
Then, Biden announced he’d be dropping out of the race…
And the Trump Trade started losing momentum.
10-year Treasury yields fell by two basis points yesterday, while the 30-year shed three points.
That may seem like a small change in fortune for bond markets.
But it’s going to have larger implications for the stocks in your portfolio…
Harris vs. Trump: Who’s Better for Your Portfolio?
Since Kamala Harris is taking over the candidacy at the eleventh hour, she doesn’t have enough time to reinvent the wheel.
So we can expect Harris’ platform and policies to be a carbon copy of Biden’s.
That means continued infrastructure spending, green energy subsidies and social programs. So the biggest winners should be stocks in the health care sector, green energy stocks and infrastructure plays.
Meanwhile, a second Trump term would deliver more deregulation, more tax cuts and an increased focus on energy. That’s excellent news for cryptocurrencies, regional banks, private prisons and stocks in the oil and gas sector. Trump’s protectionist policies could also strongly favor domestic industries at large.
But just like in every election year, the most important consideration is not to get too carried away with anyone’s promises or predictions.
Because the sun doesn’t rise and set on who’s living in the White House.
Innovators will continue innovating.
Americans will continue growing their wealth and thriving.
And unfortunately, our national debt will continue surging to new highs.
It’s also important to remember that a leader’s vision won’t always come to pass during their time in office…
JFK famously promised to put a man on the Moon, but he didn’t live to see it.
FDR guided America through the darkness of World War II but didn’t make it through himself.
And Trump made massive inroads with funding and programs for artificial intelligence (AI) — that are only now beginning to bear fruit.
While it’s crucial to honor and value our greatest leaders, we still owe it to our portfolio to account for the bigger picture…
2024’s “Phantom” Paradigm Shift for Stocks
While all eyes are on the presidential election as November 5 fast approaches, the stock market is going to undergo a massive transformation.
Most investors will only recognize it in hindsight.
But this paradigm shift will lead to a handful of fast-moving windfalls for those who are tuned in.
Because as you already know, inflation blindsided us in mid-2021 as it quickly surged to its highest levels in over 40 years.
Now — after what felt like an interminable three years — it seems inflation may be disappearing just as quickly as it cropped up.
Investors weren’t ready for the price surge back then … and they won’t be ready for inflation to decline quickly now.
After two years of soaring profits for mega-cap “Magnificent Seven” stocks, the average investor isn’t prepared to pivot to the market’s newest hotspot.
In short, the rules have changed.
And this isn’t about red or blue … Republican or Democrat … Harris or Trump.
It’s about adapting your approach to investing so that you can safely cash in on short-term opportunities and start multiplying your portfolio returns.
For the full story, watch my special Wealth Multiplier video presentation HERE.
To good profits,
Adam O’Dell
Chief Investment Strategist, Money & Markets