Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! This week, I’m tracking a slight uptick in jobless claims. This is going to be due in part to the recent layoffs at Microsoft and Intel, with the tech workforce trimming down after the first phase of the AI boom.

And we’re back with the Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! The Labor Department released weekly jobless claims figures this morning, and as expected, the number was slightly higher than the week before:

The last month of labor data has been pointing to an exceptionally strong job market. Too strong, in fact… Because all the rest of our economic data — from inflation to GDP — it’s all pointing towards a short-term slowdown in the economy. But then we’ve got this lone data point (weekly jobless claims), and it’s going in the other direction.

Welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! Weekly jobless claims are in for last week and the number was surprising in a few ways.

Since Inauguration Day on January 20th, President Trump has taken a radically hardline stance on border enforcement, immigration policy and deportations. This crackdown on illegal immigration has become one of his most contentious and divisive policies — but it’s also having a real-world impact on America’s economy.