This week’s going to be a quiet one in terms of economic data — which makes the weekly jobless claims announcement all the more impactful. I expect the jobs market to tread water this week, without any major good news or bad news. But we’re still on track for a major spike in claims that could send the economy spiraling.
Read MoreWelcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! The latest weekly jobless claims were released this morning, much to the surprise of just about everyone.
Read MoreJobless claims were moving along at a steady clip until this May, when weekly claims started ticking up by 10-20% on average. And this higher rate of jobless claims stuck all the way through June, too. Investors were beginning to wonder whether this might be a lasting trend — one that could lead to slowdown or even recession.
Read MoreWelcome back for your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. The weekly jobless claims numbers are in, and, just as I expected, they came in relatively close to the previous week’s print. Jobless claims for the week preceding the Fourth of July holiday were revised down to 232,000.
Read MoreFor more than a month now, jobless claims have been surging higher. Which leads us to an important question — is this just a temporary “bubble” in unemployment due to things like DOGE cuts? Or is this a larger trend shift that could point to a slowdown in the economy? I’ll share my take in today’s video update, then Matt Clark will help you flesh out the bigger picture below:
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