Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello, this is Matt Clark. Andrew Zatlin will be out this week, so we’re skipping our usual video and getting right down to business… Every Thursday at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department drops a number most traders scroll past. Last week it was 196,000.

Ultimately, it’s all about the math… You take the total number of unemployed people in the country, and you divide that by the size of the overall workforce. Et voila, you have the unemployment rate. And when we evaluate the unemployment rate, there’s an underlying assumption that the second number (the size of our workforce) is going to stay relatively the same over time. People need jobs to survive, after all.

The concept of the Summer Job is alive and well here in the United States… During the sunny and sweltering months of June through September, the construction industry usually adds about 600,000 new workers who stay on through the end of the season. The hospitality industry also staffs up to handle vacationers, even lawncare businesses are booming since there’s no snow to obscure the yard.

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! As I explained in last week’s update, we’ve been seeing lower jobless claims from week-to-week — and I’m expecting that trend to stick. Despite volatility in the markets and uncertainty in the headlines, the actual hard data coming out of the economy is strong. It’s pointing towards increased demand for workers, which will in turn keep jobless claims down and investors happy.

Right now, Donald Trump’s policies are having a material impact on the US economy — and you can see the proof in the latest round of economic data… Namely, the fact that jobless claims are coming in much lower than consensus expected. And it’s going to stay that way through the next two months.