The European Central Bank on Thursday delivered a new blast of monetary stimulus to help the shaky economy in the face of uncertainties like the U.S.-China trade conflict and Brexit.
The decision comes as central banks around the world including the U.S. Federal Reserve lower rates to support slowing trade and growth, despite nagging questions over how much good central banks can do when rates are already ultra-low.
In a wide-ranging package of measures that will ensure outgoing President Mario Draghi leaves a mark on the ECB’s policies long after he leaves next month, the bank cut one key interest rate further below zero. It trimmed the rate on deposits it takes from banks to minus 0.5% from minus 0.4%, a penalty that pushes banks to lend excess cash.
The ECB, which sets policy for the 19 countries that use the euro, also said it would restart its bond-buying stimulus program, which pumps newly created money into the financial system to lower borrowing costs and help the economy. It will buy 20 billion euros ($22 billion) a month in government and corporate bonds for as long as needed.
The central bank furthermore extended its promise to keep rates at record lows until inflation goes back up to its goal of just under 2%. At last count, it was just 1%.
The ECB has joined the Fed and other central banks in making credit cheaper to help the economy. The Fed cut its key policy rate in July for the first time in a decade, to a new range of 2% to 2.25%. Markets believe there is a near certainty the Fed will cut rates for a second time at its next meeting Sept. 17-18.
Draghi was able to push the stimulus package through the 25-member governing council despite skepticism about the size of the package voiced by several members ahead of time. Some aspects of the package such as the rate cut and the bond purchases were smaller than some analysts expected although the open-ended timing could partly offset that.
The package ensures that the stimulus policies will influence the ECB’s stance for months after Draghi leaves office. Thursday was his next-to-last meeting before his eight-year term ends on Oct. 31; Christine Lagarde, the outgoing head of the International Monetary Fund, is due to take his place and has endorsed Draghi’s measures in hearings on her nomination.
The euro quickly fell to its lowest level against the dollar since May 2017, while stock markets in Europe rose. The currency was down 0.6% at $1.0940, while Germany’s DAX index rose 0.4%.
“This was a kitchen sink job” said Neil Wilson, chief markets analyst at Markets.com. “Mario Draghi has done pretty much everything he could do with this one and is leaving the door open for Christine Lagarde to cut further.”
Economic growth in the EU has slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter from the quarter before and Germany, the largest member of the euro, shrank by 0.1%, putting it on the verge of a recession, defined as two straight quarters of declining output.
While services firms and employment have held up relatively well, industrial firms have seen activity slump amid uncertainty about global trade. U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports as he seeks a new trade deal, leading to Chinese retaliation and uncertainty among firms about where they should locate supply lines of parts and products. The IMF has lowered its forecast for growth in global trade this year by 0.9% to 2.5%.
Further uncertainty has been piled on by lack of clarity over whether Britain will leave the European Union on Oct. 31 with a divorce deal to smooth the movement of goods. Without an exit deal, new tariffs and border checks would suddenly be imposed, disrupting business dealings between major trade partners.
Stimulus measures make borrowing cheaper and thus stimulate economic activity, assuming businesses see enough prospect of profit to be willing to risk borrowing. Low interest rate policy also tends to support the prices of financial assets such as stocks and bonds, helping to ward off market turmoil that could further undermine confidence.
“On both sides of the Atlantic, highly accommodative monetary policies limit the risk of financial turbulence,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank in London.
Like the Fed, the ECB has had to change its stimulus stance as the global economic outlook has grown shakier. The bank ended a previous bond purchase stimulus only in December after purchasing 2.6 trillion euros ($2.9 trillion) in financial assets from banks. The bank kept those bond holdings by reinvesting the proceeds of expiring bonds, thus maintaining the level of monetary stimulus. But deteriorating economic data pushed the bank to start developing plans for more stimulus.
Turkish Central Bank Slashes Key Interest Rate Again
Turkey’s central bank, under its new governor, has slashed its key interest rate again, this time by 3.25 percentage points.
The bank said Thursday it had lowered the one-week repo auction rate to 16.50% from 19.75%, saying the inflation outlook continued to improve.
The bank had cut the rate from 24% to 19.75% in July following the appointment of Murat Uysal.
The rate cut Thursday was less than investors had anticipated, helping the Turkish lira advance against the dollar.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dismissed the previous governor, Murat Cetinkaya, on July 6 for reportedly resisting rate cuts.
Turkey’s currency nosedived last year over concerns about the country’s high levels of foreign debt, Erdogan’s economic policies and a diplomatic dispute with the United States.
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