Noted “Bond King” and investing guru Jeffrey Gundlach is a fan of President Donald Trump and his business-friendly economic policies.
The 2020 Democratic hopefuls … not so much, saying to “short them all” before laying down a relentless comedy routine crushing top candidates like Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, among others.
But Gundlach expects the U.S. economy to fall into a recession by 2020, and he thinks if that comes to pass, Trump might abandon his reelection bid altogether.
The problem, Gundlach says, is that if the economy does falter, everyone will blame the Trump tariffs and trade wars.
When asked if he thought the president would be reelected, “It depends on the economy. I’m not even really sure that he’s going to run,” he said.
“If the economy goes into recession and he can’t pull it out by removing the tariffs, there’s very little for him to run on,” Gundlach said this week on Fox Business. “Lyndon Johnson ran for a while, too, but then pulled out because of the war problems. Things can change.”
Just last week, Gundlach said he is “certainly long on gold” as he sees recession chances rising. He noted that 2019 has been the “opposite of 2018” because gold, Bitcoin, stocks and bonds all are making money despite the ongoing trade war with China.
He said he now sees a 40% to 45% chance of recession hitting the U.S. economy within the next six months, but that figure rises to 65% within the next year.
Gundlach, the DoubleLine Capital co-founder and CEO in charge of more than $30 billion in assets, noted the tanking consumer confidence expectations and current conditions, which are near all-time lows. He also pointed to the skyrocketing national debt, which could get “much, much worse in the next recession” as the U.S. debt interest as a percentage of GDP is expected to hit record highs — which could also in part be why Trump is constantly calling for rate cuts.
