The “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach said he believes this week’s rally in Treasurys has reached its peak and things will now begin to settle down, at least for the near-term.
Gundlach fired off a tweet Wednesday night saying the fever-pitch swing in Treasury prices has more to do with herd mentality than anything else.
“Long maturity US Treasury price action today was consistent with a blowoff momentum top,” tweeted Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. “I suspect buyer’s remorse will set in fairly soon.”
Long maturity US Treasury price action today was consistent with a blowoff momentum top. I suspect buyer’s remorse will set in fairly soon.
— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) May 29, 2019
Bond prices move inversely to yields, meaning the dip in rates that have created more volatility on Wall Streets is likely over for now. Gundlach’s tweet came after yet another rocky trading session Wednesday as declines in long-term Treasury yields reflect concerns surrounding the global growth outlook.
On one side you have the U.S.-China trade war escalating by the day and on the other, weakness in European exports, both of which have investors running for the hills and dumping equities in favor of more reliable Treasurys.
The movement has kept constant pressure on both stocks and yields, with the 10-year Treasury down 25 basis points this month, a big move for things like mortgage rates.
All of this action has led to a yield curve inversion, a traditional indicator of an incoming recession. The 10-year and 3-month Treasury spread fell into negative territory again Wednesday.
If the “Bond King” is correct, demand for U.S. debt may quickly decline as a near-6% decline in equities will bring back investors looking to buy the dip. Markets were up at the opening bell Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both adding 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.2%, pushing yields higher.
The 10-year note rose to 2.264%, off a 20-month low of 2.21% on Wednesday. Still, a portion of the yield curve remains inverted, with the 3-month Treasury at 2.36%.
According to DoubleLine’s website, Gundlach’s company manages more than $130 billion in assets.