With each passing day — and even amid an impeachment by the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives — more and more equity investors see incumbent President Donald Trump winning reelection in 2020, according to a new survey by RBC Capital Markets.
In RBC’s latest December survey, a whopping 76% of 119 respondents said they believe Trump will win, which is a “big jump” from September, when 66% said he’d win again, RBC U.S. Equity Strategy chief Lori Calvasina wrote in a note to clients, according to Bloomberg.
The numbers are a complete reversal from fading expectations of a Trump 2020 win in the firm’s June and September surveys.
Of the respondents predicting a Democratic victory, the number has fallen from 34% in September to just 24% in the latest survey.
About two-thirds of respondents say a Trump victory will be good for the stock market (tell me something we don’t know), while just 4% said Trump’s reelection would be bad for stocks, which is the lowest such level since RBC began asking the question in its June survey.
The survey also said, however, that former Vice President Joe Biden’s “chances have stabilized and (Elizabeth) Warren fears have faded” along with the Massachusetts Senator’s polling numbers. In September, respondents had Warren’s chances of winning the nomination at 39%. Now they have her at just 13%, a significant drop.
Though, RBC said it’s still too early to call the race for any particular candidate, and things could change.
Also regarding Warren’s fading poll numbers, Real Clear Politics has her in third place behind Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.. RCP has Biden at 27.9% support compared to Sanders’ 19.7%, with Warren at 15% and fading fast as she waffles on Medicare for All.
South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (8.6%) and billionaire Michael Bloomberg (5.1%) round out the Top 5.
The favorable numbers for Trump come alongside other positive results from Wednesday morning, when we reported on the president’s economic approval numbers, which hit their highest level of the year.
Not to mention, the stock market has enjoyed record high after record high recently.
It’s quite the backdrop to the impeachment sideshow currently going on in the House of Representatives. Whether you like Trump or not, it’s hard to argue against such strong economic numbers.
