We may be only days into 2026, but we’ve already had enough action to last us an entire calendar year.
So if you’re committed to setting yourself up to beat the market in 2026 … the time to take action is now.
Here’s a simple three-step action plan to get you started:
Step #1 – Clear your calendar for this Wednesday, January 7 at 1 pm. I’m going live – actually live – with my “Beat the Market Action Plan: 2026.” I’ll be covering why I believe the so-called Magnificent 7 will be “obliterated” in 2026 (though not in a doom-and-gloom fashion of any sort) … and the precise action plan I suggest you follow to position yourself for beating the market (with only 12 trading days required).
Step #2 – Read below to get yourself up to speed on what’s unfolding in the VSA, aka the “Venezuelan State of America” as I’m dubbing it.
Step #3 – See below for the real lesson you should learn from the breaking of this news.
As I said, the time to take action is now … so let’s go!
What. Just. Happened?!
News broke over the weekend that U.S. Delta Force had pulled off a daring raid to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who is now in custody in New York and awaiting trial on narco-terrorism charges.
Personally, I won’t even hazard a guess as to what happens next in Venezuela (more on why, below).
For one, it’s all happening so quickly that anything I write would likely be dated by the time I hit the send key.
What’s more, ventures at predicting the future based on theoretical arguments are most usually a fool’s errand.
But just for grins, let’s go over a few of the scenarios you’ll likely read about in the mainstream media, or by “forecasters” of the future.
First, “uncertainty” should be on the rise.
Though we don’t see it in the financial market so far …
Early trading in the futures market on Sunday was muted. This morning, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are up. All told, it seems that Wall Street is still a little unsure of what to think, but, in the absence of certainty over what happens next in Venezuela, is “sticking with the trend” in equity markets … which, in one word, is “up.”
We’ll see how the market performs throughout the week as investors have time to really digest what happened and what it means. But for now, shockingly, the market is saying something like, “Eh, business as usual.”
Otherwise, you’d think we would see volatility trending higher. The VIX index, a common barometer of market volatility, has been scraping along near historic lows for months. Whenever that happens, something eventually knocks the market out of its sense of complacency. Will a return of “nation building” be the catalyst?
Perhaps, eventually … but not so far. This morning, the VIX was sleepily below 15 – that is, under its long-term average. In fact, the VIX has been higher 83% of the time over the past year.
As a trader who has made a career out of profitably trading options, I would certainly welcome some fresh volatility in 2026. Whether we actually get it from the budding debate over Venezuela’s future is anyone’s guess.
Looking at the fundamentals… many folks are optimistic that the U.S. can be successful in getting Venezuela’s oil and gas infrastructure back online. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves and was once the world’s largest crude exporter. So, if the Trump Administration is serious about exploiting Venezuelan oil, we could see the markets flooded.
There are a lot of “ifs” there. It’s not clear that the Venezuelan government will go along with the plan. There might be unrest. And even if all sides agree to move forward, Venezuelan crude is heavy, and there aren’t a lot of refineries globally that have the ability or capacity to refine it.
But even with the “ifs,” we shouldn’t be surprised to see shocks to the energy market … shocks and surprises that create both winners and losers. In theory, a flood of new supply is potentially bad news for domestic U.S. drillers … but great news for refiners.
But as I said at the start, predicting the future based on theoretical arguments is most usually a fool’s errand.
And that brings me back to Step #3 of today’s action plan: what’s the real lesson you should learn from waking up on January 1 to hear we’re running another supposedly sovereign country for a while?
The lesson is two-part:
Lesson #1 – Predicting the future is really, really difficult.
In his 2016 book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Philip Tetlock constructs one of the best experiments around the practice of forecasting I’ve ever come across.
The TLDR on it is this:
- Very few people can actually make predictions that are accurate and valuable.
- Even for the exceptional forecasters, the amount of hard work that goes into making good predictions is massive. Far more than reading the news and forming an opinion.
- Most people shouldn’t even bother.
I highly recommend the book, as well as Tetlock’s 2005 book, titled Expert Political Judgment …
In that, Tetlock demonstrates how the forecasting ability of most political and economic experts is poor, often no better than random chance. Even worse, these experts become overconfident in their predictions, leading them to act in ways that ultimately hurt them.
Here’s the second part of the lesson from Venezuela’s uncertain future …
Lesson #2: If you can’t predict, you must adapt.
If trying to predict which country will be taken over next, and what impact that will have on oil prices, tech stocks and the U.S. dollar is, well, a “fool’s errand” … then, well, “what’s an investor to do?!”
The answer to that question, as I’ve come to learn, is simple: ADAPT.
Here’s just one quick example …
At the beginning of last year, the “small-cap” portfolio I run in my Infinite Momentum service had zero exposure to gold – “zero, zip, nada” as my 5-year-old would say.
But then, as the astonishingly bullish rally in gold began to take hold … my “infinite momentum” system did just what it was designed to do: it adapted to the new reality.
It was simple …
The price of gold was rallying.
Gold miners’ stocks were becoming extremely attractive, by “Quality,” “Value,” and “Momentum” measures.
And, thus, my system said we ought to be long gold miners!
Long story short, by May, six of our 10 positions were in gold miners … and we absolutely nailed the gold trade of 2025!
All without a single “prediction” or “forecast” of what the metal would, should or could do.
It was truly incredible to watch in real time …
And on Wednesday at 1 p.m. (this Wednesday, January 7) … I want to walk you through that gold trade, as well as the trades we made in my “Tech Titans” portfolio, which handily beat the market by roughly 3-to-1 in 2025.
I’m 100% certain that all serious investors will leave my live presentation with confidence in their 2026 “Beat the Market” action plan – plus, I’ll be allowing time for a 100% live Q&A session that will last for as long as you have questions for me.
By the way, I’ve “arrested” your regular programming here at What My System Says Today. I’ll be “running” this thing through Wednesday’s live event.
Tomorrow, in a piece I’ve amusingly titled “More Like Mega-CRAP,” I’ll show you what buying so-called “Mega-Cap” stocks has done for investors’ portfolios historically. The results of my study may surprise you. If you’re infatuated with the Magnificent 7 and can’t handle contrary information … read this piece with an open mind.
Then on Wednesday, I’ll give you an update on the most recent reconstitution of the Nasdaq 100 index. Six stocks got the boot, six new stocks have been added … and I’ll tell you exactly what to do about it.
To good profits,
Adam O’Dell
Editor, What My System Says Today
