Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! Back in March of this year, I predicted that we’d see a gradual decline in week-to-week jobless claims. I even put a specific number on it, forecasting weekly claims to drop below 200,000 by July. And that’s exactly what happened last week.

America’s got World Cup fever… And whether you’re rooting for Cabo Verde or the home team, there’s plenty of great soccer action to be enjoyed over the next few weeks. These games are projected to have an absolutely massive impact on the economy, creating upwards of 185,000 new jobs before a new winning team takes the trophy.

Not since February have we seen weekly jobless claims reach such a high level… That said, this kind of volatility is to be expected around this time of year. Numbers from the Labor Department found that, for the week ending June 6, initial weekly jobless claims rose to their highest level since earlier this year.

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! Today, we’re going to be diving into a major trend shift that’s now playing out in the markets… I’m talking about the “good news is bad news” bump we saw following higher-than-expected jobless claims last week.

It’s been an interesting run for weekly jobless claims over the last several months. Since a spike in February, claims have dropped to as low as 190,000, and hovered between 200,000 and 220,000.