Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

I realize I’m sounding a bit like a broken record at this point, but we once again nailed our prediction for jobless claims … and Wall Street also missed wide (as usual).

We have another weekly jobless claim print… and another indication that the labor market remains in good shape. Data from the Labor Department released this morning showed exactly what I predicted — a slight uptick in initial claims.

Jobless claims have been all over the place these past few weeks — but there’s a pretty clear method to the overall madness… It’s all about those seasonal adjustments made at the topline of each week’s claims report. Those adjustments are based on past performance, but they don’t always represent today’s seasonal realities. Let’s dive into the details this week, and I’ll show you why the latest claims data will continue signaling a strong economy.

Welcome to your Superforecast Trader Thursday market wrap! Before I turn things over to Matt to look at market activity, the latest weekly jobless claims figures are out, and there was a slight jump in applications for the week ending April 4.

We nailed it again. March payroll numbers dropped late last week, coming in far stronger than most everyone was expecting. Everyone except us, of course. This week, we’ve got some ongoing volatility in the markets (more on that below from Matt Clark), but we’re also seeing the long-term picture firm up in some very encouraging ways.