Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! Today’s a good news/bad news day — with rising unemployment claims despite signs of a strengthening economy. But before we dive into the nitty-gritty, I wanted to remind you of our upcoming Moneyball Happy Hour, coming up LIVE on May 14 at 3 PM. You’re welcome to tune in, relax and participate in an informal deep dive into the subjects that really matter.

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! Last week’s initial jobless claims figures surprised even me. However, it was no surprise that those claims would tick back up this week.

I realize I’m sounding a bit like a broken record at this point, but we once again nailed our prediction for jobless claims … and Wall Street also missed wide (as usual).

We have another weekly jobless claim print… and another indication that the labor market remains in good shape. Data from the Labor Department released this morning showed exactly what I predicted — a slight uptick in initial claims.

Jobless claims have been all over the place these past few weeks — but there’s a pretty clear method to the overall madness… It’s all about those seasonal adjustments made at the topline of each week’s claims report. Those adjustments are based on past performance, but they don’t always represent today’s seasonal realities. Let’s dive into the details this week, and I’ll show you why the latest claims data will continue signaling a strong economy.