Tariff turmoil is currently playing out in the stock market, but you can expect jobless claims to stay relatively stable for the week. First, a quick “Big Picture” video update on jobs, then Matt Clark will tell you how we’re playing this one.
Read MoreWelcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. As I anticipated, weekly jobless claims came in slightly lower from the previous week, indicating that federal worker layoffs continue to run at a trickle:
Read MoreWelcome back to Superforecast Trader! Jobless claims are on track to hold steady this week — with DOGE layoffs and buyouts still gradually working their way through the system. So for this week’s video, I’m sharing the details of my longer-term forecast … and explain why bearish job numbers today will lead to a renewed bull run later in the year.
Read MoreWelcome to the Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. Jobless numbers are out, and they’re right where we expected to see them. Initial claims came in at 223,000 — higher than the overall consensus but right on the money with my number.
Read MoreWinter storms have been playing havoc on jobless claims since the beginning of the year. But now there’s a new factor driving jobless claims higher — and that’s the layoff of federal employees as part of Trump’s effort to optimize the government. Here’s what I expect to happen as that trickle turns into a flood (click below to watch my video, then scroll down for more details & insights from Matt Clark):
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