Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello and welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. Well, it was yet another surprise when weekly jobless claim figures were released this morning:

This week’s going to be a quiet one in terms of economic data — which makes the weekly jobless claims announcement all the more impactful. I expect the jobs market to tread water this week, without any major good news or bad news. But we’re still on track for a major spike in claims that could send the economy spiraling.

Welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! The latest weekly jobless claims were released this morning, much to the surprise of just about everyone.

Jobless claims were moving along at a steady clip until this May, when weekly claims started ticking up by 10-20% on average. And this higher rate of jobless claims stuck all the way through June, too. Investors were beginning to wonder whether this might be a lasting trend — one that could lead to slowdown or even recession.

Welcome back for your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. The weekly jobless claims numbers are in, and, just as I expected, they came in relatively close to the previous week’s print. Jobless claims for the week preceding the Fourth of July holiday were revised down to 232,000.