Welcome back to Superforecast Trader! Jobless claims are on track to hold steady this week — with DOGE layoffs and buyouts still gradually working their way through the system. So for this week’s video, I’m sharing the details of my longer-term forecast … and explain why bearish job numbers today will lead to a renewed bull run later in the year.
Read MoreWelcome to the Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. Jobless numbers are out, and they’re right where we expected to see them. Initial claims came in at 223,000 — higher than the overall consensus but right on the money with my number.
Read MoreWinter storms have been playing havoc on jobless claims since the beginning of the year. But now there’s a new factor driving jobless claims higher — and that’s the layoff of federal employees as part of Trump’s effort to optimize the government. Here’s what I expect to happen as that trickle turns into a flood (click below to watch my video, then scroll down for more details & insights from Matt Clark):
Read MoreWelcome to your Thursday edition of Andrew Zatlin’s Superforecast Trader! The jobless numbers came in this morning, and, as I expected, the change in claims for the week ending March 8 was nominal. I anticipated a very small change in the weekly claims, and that’s exactly what we got.
Read MoreJobless claims are on the rise over the past few weeks — but not for the reason you might be expecting. I’m also tracking an unexpected hiring spike, in Washington D.C. of all places. Check out your weekly Superforecast Trader video update below, then scroll down for some deeper analysis from Matt Clark:
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