Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! I’ll be the first to admit that my professional work has something of a “nuanced” relationship with official government data… On the one hand, what I do is all about predicting future releases.

Welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! Well, we have another week of a temporary government shutdown. That means we have no data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on items such as weekly jobless claims and continuing claims.

We’re now entering the fourth week of our government shutdown, and the fourth week without any new official data releases from the US government. But as you’ve seen over these past few weeks of Superforecast Trader, that doesn’t mean we’re flying blind… Because our key advantage has always come from painting a much bigger picture — combining a whole universe of real-time data to beat the market week in and week out.

It’s another Superforecast Trader Thursday, and like the previous two weeks, the partial government shutdown has withheld weekly jobless claims figures. It’s these figures we use to find Super Divergence trading opportunities in the market. I use my own data to estimate weekly jobless claims on Bloomberg every week. We compare this against the previous week’s actual claims figure to determine if we have a high-probability trading opportunity.

According to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, the US federal government is “barreling towards one of the longest shutdowns in American history.” That means we’ve got yet another week where we’re unlikely to see any new official data released on jobless claims. It’s important to remember these shutdowns can’t last forever.