Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader (Alerts)

This is a big one, folks… Wall Street’s projections are going to miss this week’s jobless claims wide, and that presents us with an especially promising Super Divergence opportunity. Matt Clark has the details of the trade below, and this week’s video update will delve a little more into the reason why this week’s trade is so compelling.

Well, we went into the week with some cautious optimism that the opening of the quarterly earnings season would ease investors’ minds regarding the resilient-consumer story that Andrew’s claims data flagged. Our expectation was that the ease would carry the broad market higher. The setup was sound, but the week had other plans.

Welcome back to Superforecast Trader! So far this year, we’ve been right on the money — consistently predicting new jobless claims and zeroing in on the resulting opportunities. And as we’ve followed the market from week to week and month to month, you may have started noticing a pattern … a bit of a “bubble” in jobless claims, where the health of the overall economy didn’t seem to be in line with what the data was telling us.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 215,000 for the week ending June 20 — a bigger decline than economists had expected, and the lowest print in several weeks. On the surface, that looks like good news for the labor market. But there’s an asterisk… Last Friday was Juneteenth, a federal holiday, and holiday weeks tend to distort claims data.

The conflict in Iran finally seems to be winding down — but we’re still seeing higher costs for businesses here in America. That’s part of the reason why jobless claims have been coming in at a slightly elevated level over the past few weeks. There’s more to this story, and I’m covering all of it in this week’s video update. Click below to watch the video, then scroll down for analysis and Trade Alert details from Matt Clark: