Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader (Alerts)

Welcome back to Superforecast Trader! So far this year, we’ve been right on the money — consistently predicting new jobless claims and zeroing in on the resulting opportunities. And as we’ve followed the market from week to week and month to month, you may have started noticing a pattern … a bit of a “bubble” in jobless claims, where the health of the overall economy didn’t seem to be in line with what the data was telling us.

The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell 12,000 to 215,000 for the week ending June 20 — a bigger decline than economists had expected, and the lowest print in several weeks. On the surface, that looks like good news for the labor market. But there’s an asterisk… Last Friday was Juneteenth, a federal holiday, and holiday weeks tend to distort claims data.

The conflict in Iran finally seems to be winding down — but we’re still seeing higher costs for businesses here in America. That’s part of the reason why jobless claims have been coming in at a slightly elevated level over the past few weeks. There’s more to this story, and I’m covering all of it in this week’s video update. Click below to watch the video, then scroll down for analysis and Trade Alert details from Matt Clark:

The U.S. labor market got a little bit of good news today as the Labor Department released the latest weekly jobless claims figures. After the previous week’s figures were revised up, initial claims dropped in the week ending June 13.

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! We’ve got another Super Divergence trade recommendation for you today. Matt Clark has all the details on that below. In the meantime, I wanted to offer a bit of background on the current spike in jobless claims — and what that means for the economy going forward.