Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

Hello again! Given the substantial volatility we witnessed as the market digested both yesterday’s Fed decision and this morning’s jobless claims, we exited the first half of our trade shortly after market open to mitigate our risk. I’m pleased to report the second half of our current trade is now performing better than the first half.

Hello and welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! Weekly jobless claims data tells me something is going on in the labor market.

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! This week, I’m tracking a slight uptick in jobless claims. This is going to be due in part to the recent layoffs at Microsoft and Intel, with the tech workforce trimming down after the first phase of the AI boom.

And we’re back with the Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! The Labor Department released weekly jobless claims figures this morning, and as expected, the number was slightly higher than the week before:

The last month of labor data has been pointing to an exceptionally strong job market. Too strong, in fact… Because all the rest of our economic data — from inflation to GDP — it’s all pointing towards a short-term slowdown in the economy. But then we’ve got this lone data point (weekly jobless claims), and it’s going in the other direction.