Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

It’s official — a deal has been struck in Washington D.C. and after more than 42 days, the longest shutdown in modern political history has come to a close. This is a major victory for thousands of furloughed government workers, and for the tens of millions of Americans who rely on government employees for everything from food assistance to safe and expedient travel.

Welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! As the government shutdown persists, access to government unemployment data remains nonexistent. That said, there are other datapoints released by private entities that still provide us with some insight into the U.S. jobs market.

The ongoing government shutdown is now tied for the longest in history at 35 days — but things are going to start wrapping up soon… I believe we could see an end to this shutdown in the next week. And not only that, I believe the end of the shutdown could trigger a massive trading opportunity based on stronger-than-expected data. Hit today’s video for the full story, then scroll down for some surprising analysis from Matt Clark:

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! As I mentioned in Tuesday’s update, we’re currently in a bit of a challenging situation due to the ongoing government shutdown. On the one hand, we know precisely where markets are heading and how the economy’s doing — since we’ve still got a universe of data to help paint our picture. But without those official government data releases, we’re missing a critical component of our trading formula.

Hello, and welcome back to Superforecast Trader! I’ll be the first to admit that my professional work has something of a “nuanced” relationship with official government data… On the one hand, what I do is all about predicting future releases.