Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

The labor market’s running remarkably steady, but there’s one thing I’m worried about headed into the upcoming summer months. Details in my video below:

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Andrew Zatlin’s Superforecast Trader. Well, the numbers are in … and just as I suspected, there was a slight jump in initial claims for the week ending February 1. Initial claims moved 11,000 higher for the week to 219,000, which was above Bloomberg’s survey estimates, but very close to my own:

Last week’s winter storms slowed down jobless claims more than anyone expected… But this week, the snow & ice are melting, and we’re going to see a short-term bump in jobless numbers (even though the economy is running strong):

I’m going to get right to it today. The numbers are in, and they are surprising… Jobless claims from last week came in at 207,000. This was below both my estimate and consensus.

Hello and welcome to Superforecast Trader! We’re already beginning to see the impact of Trump’s transformative policies on jobless claims and payroll numbers … and it’s influencing our strategy for this week: