Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

There’s an interesting rule of thumb in labor markets — that jobless claims tend to jump during weeks that follow a three-day holiday weekend (like Memorial Day).
So for this week’s video, I wanted to share an explanation on why that happens … and why the consensus is still underestimating this week’s coming spike in claims.

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Andrew Zatlin’s Superforecast Trader. Andrew is on his way back from his vacation in Japan, so I will go over all the numbers today. And, those numbers don’t seem like anything out of the ordinary … at least not at first glance:

Welcome to your Tuesday edition of Andrew Zatlin’s Superforecast Trader! I’m Chief Research Analyst Matt Clark, and I’ll remain in the driver’s seat this week as Andrew is on holiday in Japan. Stocks have continued to whipsaw so far this week. The S&P 500 closed on Monday with a loss but opened today nearly 1.5% higher (more on the markets in just a moment).

Welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! Let’s get right to it… Jobless claims came in right at consensus estimates — 223,000 — and very close to my number:

Tariff turmoil is currently playing out in the stock market, but you can expect jobless claims to stay relatively stable for the week. First, a quick “Big Picture” video update on jobs, then Matt Clark will tell you how we’re playing this one.