Archive Category: Andrew Zatlin's Superforecast Trader Archive

The last month of labor data has been pointing to an exceptionally strong job market. Too strong, in fact… Because all the rest of our economic data — from inflation to GDP — it’s all pointing towards a short-term slowdown in the economy. But then we’ve got this lone data point (weekly jobless claims), and it’s going in the other direction.

Welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader! Weekly jobless claims are in for last week and the number was surprising in a few ways.

Since Inauguration Day on January 20th, President Trump has taken a radically hardline stance on border enforcement, immigration policy and deportations. This crackdown on illegal immigration has become one of his most contentious and divisive policies — but it’s also having a real-world impact on America’s economy.

Hello and welcome to your Thursday edition of Superforecast Trader. Well, it was yet another surprise when weekly jobless claim figures were released this morning:

This week’s going to be a quiet one in terms of economic data — which makes the weekly jobless claims announcement all the more impactful. I expect the jobs market to tread water this week, without any major good news or bad news. But we’re still on track for a major spike in claims that could send the economy spiraling.