With Dow’s 119-year old road map, it’s not a surprise to see the S&P 500 stall at the current price level. Now, it’s time to look for a second down leg — a decline of at least 250 points in the Index.
Author: Michael Carr
Unlike oil, physical products in agricultural markets become useless in time. Hogs and cattle cannot be stored indefinitely for a variety of reasons.
The S&P 500 is currently trading at about 2,800. If earnings fall by an average amount, the index could drop another 22%.
With its deep insight into the state of economy, used car prices are a great response if you ever find yourself at an economist’s party playing “desert island indicator.”
The current reading of the Baa-Treasury spread, the dashed line, is consistent with a recession. The chart shows there were no false signals in the past 20 years.
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